US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%

공개

Screen the entire US equity universe by three hard criteria—trailing 3-year ROE sustained above 15%, positive free cash flow, and reasonable valuation—and surface one stock per day

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 04. 21:32:06

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — ROE #1 among large US banks, a $50B buyback, and the Dimon question

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of ~17.1% / 18.2% / 19.8% for FY2023–FY2025 (highest in its 8-bank peer group), positive OCF-minus-CapEx FCF of $61.2B / $66.1B / $74.2B, and a trailing P/E of 14.41x — only 5% above the peer median while the ROE lead is 4–9 percentage points. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model (4-segment breakdown: CCB, CIB, AWM, Corporate), ROE table with FY2023 data-source discrepancy disclosed, dual-methodology FCF chart, revenue + earnings growth chart, full 8-bank peer valuation comparison table (P/E, forward P/E, P/B, ROE, dividend yield), bank-appropriate balance sheet analysis using CET1 (13.7% Q1 2026 vs 11.5% minimum), five risk factors (Dimon succession ~$40B 5% impact, $40B+ cumulative regulatory exposure, insider selling pattern, NII rate risk, low short interest), near-term catalysts (Q2 July 14 earnings, 14-year dividend growth streak at $1.50/quarter, $50B buyback, analyst consensus $336–342 target), and competitive moat (scale $4.25T+, 52% vs 61% efficiency ratio vs BAC, #1 IB fees, $17B tech budget). Closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on July 14 NII trajectory and 33.6% P/E premium vs. 5-year average.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 03. 21:44:52

Microsoft (MSFT) — 30% ROE, $71.6B FCF, and a P/E 22% below its own 5-year average

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 35.09% / 32.83% / 29.65% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified, each year well above the 15% threshold); FCF of $59.5B / $74.1B / $71.6B (all positive, FY2025 dip driven entirely by $64.6B AI CapEx); and a trailing P/E of 26.28x — 22.6% below its own 5-year average of 33.96x and roughly at peer median. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model and three-segment breakdown, year-by-year ROE table, FCF chart and trend, valuation metrics with 7-peer comparison table, net income / operating income / margin trends, balance sheet (D/E 11.8%, interest coverage 80.3x, AAA/Aaa/AAA tri-agency rating), five risk factors (FTC antitrust, EU DMA, AI CapEx ROI, cybersecurity, insider activity), near-term catalysts (July 2026 Q4 earnings, M365 price increases effective July 2026, 27% analyst consensus upside), and competitive moat (46.8% operating margin vs. peers, 450M+ M365 seats, Azure share gains vs. AWS). A bull/bear framework closes the article.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 02. 21:28:22

Mastercard (MA) — 193% ROE, $17.8B FCF, and a P/E 20% below its own 5-year average

Mastercard (NYSE: MA) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 161.6% / 198.5% / 193.5% for FY2023–FY2025 (buyback-driven; ROIC 95%); FCF of $10.89B / $13.59B / $16.43B with TTM at $17.07B; and a trailing P/E of 28.65×, 20.6% below its own 5-year average of 36.09× and 14% cheaper on P/FCF than Visa. The article covers the asset-light network model, the full ROE/ROIC table, FCF trend, revenue/margin chart, a 6-peer valuation table, balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA 0.89×, interest coverage 27.9×), five risk factors including the CCCA and $38B settlement, late-July Q2 2026 earnings, and a bull/bear framework.

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